Margin of error | Column by Jorge Saldaña
Once I heard a campaign coordinator say that the dilemma of the polls is that, when you believe in one, you assume the responsibility of validating them all. On monday the numbers on the alleged electoral preferences of the potosinos with respect to candidates for municipal presidents of the capital began to circulate: one is a study paid by a corporate owned by Miguel Maya Romero to a registered and specialized company in this kind of measurements, and another is a simple survey exercise undertaken by the Global Media group through its radio and television stations, as well as their respective social network accounts.
Regardless of the results, it seems very early for one or another applicant to be seriously excited with this type of exercise, and we as citizens must take great care now to know how to differentiate between one and another type of measurements to avoid falling into scenarios fictitious or manipulative.
I must say that I do not want to take credit from either of the two efforts, although I must admit that the one that has, apparently, scientific methodology is the one published by the media of businessman Maya Romero, and I say “apparently” because I think, (but I hope wrong) that this first delivery of results hides a trap, and that by validating the first results without further questioning, there is little room left to doubt the deliveries that follow and that they do come “spooned” in favor of one of the candidates.
According to the first survey paid by the corporate MAZ, if the elections were today, Ricardo Gallardo would have almost 40 percent of preferences, followed by Xavier Nava with 18.5, Cecilia Gonzalez on 14.5, Leonel Serrato 11.3 and Alejandro Garcia, 10 percent.
On the other hand, the survey of Global Media is justified in the segmentation by ages and tastes of the population that consumes their respective radio, television and social networks, however, it can not be considered a reliable sample because a person can vote as many times as he wishes changing the results.
Thus, in the “Poll de Polls” that the media consortium calls it, Xavier Nava is first and up, followed by Leonel Serrato who described as “quantum leap” the “votes” captured on this platform, which rose almost 30 points in a week, then Cecilia González and finally Ricardo Gallardo, which means in any case that the PAN candidate has more support in those social networks or that Xavier and Leonel have more people voting in those platforms than the rest of the candidates, but not necessarily that the intention to vote for the universe of voters of the capital is represented in the exercise, because it is not designed in the strict methodological sense to be able to advance a result.
Even so, the candidates got excited and published in their social networks the surveys that helped them and disqualified those who do not favor them. It is, as I said at the beginning, the dilemma of the surveys, which is also well known, are used as propaganda seeking an effect of perception of fictitious competition that raises the spirits of citizens.
There are other surveys, those that are not published or at least not circulated and that are used to make decisions of the candidates and their teams. Of those, I partially had access to two, prepared by different firms. From there I was struck by a constant: the growth of Leonel Serrato, even above Xavier Nava, who fights for a second place by more than 20 percentage points away from the first place.
There are still 6 weeks and a campaign peak, and from my very humble point of view, it is not time for someone to feel defeated, much less the winner for more surveys and numbers, because it would be a strategic error.
The election is until the first of July and that day there are no “likes” or tendencies, the citizens are counted and their effective vote in the polls, the strategy and electoral structure of each candidate will be tested beyond the perceptions.
Tekmol is “relaxed, relaxed, relaxed” and rightly so: his jumps and clown movements, as well as his ridiculous videos on networks, have yielded results of up to 8 percent in the preference of the electors, adding a total for his candidacy of … 8 percent #WhatALaugh